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15 Oct 2015
San Francisco Fed: On current financial conditions, natural US rate is-2.1%
FXStreet (Bali) - A research piece from SF fed has been getting some air time around trading desk on Wednesday. In the paper, Vasco Cúrdia, a research advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, notes that on current financial conditions, the natural rate form the US is-2.1%. See research paper here.
Conclusion
"This Letter suggests that the natural rate of interest is expected to remain below its long-run level for some time."
"This implies that low interest rates over the next few years are consistent with the most efficient use of resources and stable inflation."
"The analysis also finds that the output gap is expected to remain negative even after the natural rate is close to its long-run level."
"Additionally, there is considerable uncertainty about both the short-run dynamics as well as what level should be expected in the longer run."
"All these considerations reinforce the possibility that interest rate normalization will be very gradual."
Conclusion
"This Letter suggests that the natural rate of interest is expected to remain below its long-run level for some time."
"This implies that low interest rates over the next few years are consistent with the most efficient use of resources and stable inflation."
"The analysis also finds that the output gap is expected to remain negative even after the natural rate is close to its long-run level."
"Additionally, there is considerable uncertainty about both the short-run dynamics as well as what level should be expected in the longer run."
"All these considerations reinforce the possibility that interest rate normalization will be very gradual."