GBPUSD to target 1.20 at the end of this year - TDS

Ned Rumpeltin, European Head of FX Strategy at TDS, suggests that they currently target 1.20 for GBPUSD at the end of this year while sterling is also highly likely to underperform other major currencies overall.

Key Quotes

“Its fate is not entirely sealed and there is time for the worst effects of the vote to be avoided. That will require, however, significant steps—and commitment among policymakers—to prevent.

Our analysis suggests that GBP weakness is likely to be accompanied by underperformance by both the EUR and CHF while JPY and USD are likely to benefit accordingly.

Cable has bounced off of the 1.28 level this week, but we think this is only a temporary reprieve. Some caution ahead of Friday’s US employment report has likely provided an element of near-term stability. We expect the trend lower in GBPUSD to resume, however, unless we see a major disappointment in that data. The 1.3079 level represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest leg lower. This, we think, should provide a solid backstop against which to initiate or add to short positions.

We think 1.3205/10 is likely to contain any near term rebound. Looking beyond the 1.2798 post -vote low, we see several items of technical interest clustering in the 1.2515/60 zone; below this, the next major are of support comes into play around 1.1880. We note, however, that precedent allows for a re -test of the all -time lows in the months ahead if the UK choses to validate the referendum and execute an EU withdrawal.”