UK: July PMI numbers to show sharp deterioration, Brexit to hit retail sales - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that Markit will release Flash UK PMIs alongside its euro area releases, and we expect the July numbers to show a sharp deterioration as post-Brexit uncertainty kicks in.

Key Quotes

“We look for about 5 points off each of the manufacturing and services series, which would make that their biggest one-month declines in the series, though by no means does it put the levels at record lows.

Sectoral indicators such as John Lewis sales suggest June retail sales held up relatively well through the pre-Referendum period, and generally speaking, it was firms and not consumer who were the most cautious pre-Brexit. But uncertainty over this release is high. The survey period covered up to July 2nd, and therefore includes a disproportionate period of high post-Referendum uncertainty, which could weigh on monthly growth.”