NZ: Truckometer indexes lifted in February - ANZ

According to Sharon Zollner, Senior Economist at ANZ, the New Zealand’s ANZ Heavy Traffic Index rose 2.3% in January (seasonally adjusted – sa) which suggests strong growth in the economy over the final three months of last year has continued into 2017 and the bounce means we were right to downplay the small fall in January – monthly data is volatile and the upward trend is solid.

Key Quotes

“The ANZ Truckometer indexes lifted in February. The Heavy Traffic Index rose 2.3% m/m, while the Light Traffic Index lifted 0.7% m/m (the charts below are a 3-month average).”

“The Heavy Traffic Index continues to trend upwards and even accelerate after a lull in mid-2016.”

“The upward trend in the Light Traffic Index has flattened, suggesting we may see growth moderate later in the year.”

“More modest growth in the second half of 2017 would not be surprising or alarming, given mounting evidence that the economy is attempting to grow faster than it sustainably can, with capacity constraints such as skilled labour more apparent.”