AUD/USD heading back towards 0.8200?

AUD/USD awaits key data this week.

AUD/USD is technically in the hands of the bulls still.

AUD/USD is starting out the week on a quiet note without there being anything the way that has been scheduled for a potential catalyst in the pair. However, the week will pick up and there is plenty to play for. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8105, testing below the figure on the opening gap to 0.8099.

The week will kick off Aussie CPI while the US calendar holds The FOMC and statement as well as Nonfarm payrolls on Friday all which are potential game changes for the pair.  However, in respect to the FOMC, markets are not looking for any changes to the policy rate nor any material changes or surprises in the post-meeting statement.

Aussie CPI expectations

"In that regard Westpac retains its call for the RBA to remain on hold through 2018 while we retain our “end 2018” level forecast for the Commodity Price Index, indicating a circa 20% fall," analysts at Westpac explained. 

Analysts at Nomura had the following to say about the forthcoming data, "headline inflation should be pushed higher by sharp gains in volatile and tax-impacted items such as fuel, electricity and tobacco, despite fierce retail competition from Amazon’s arrival in Q4 and “Black Friday” sales in November which should hold down a range of related prices. We also note the weaker-than-expected Q4 CPI inflation reading in New Zealand, including for tradable goods prices, which came in despite a fall in the currency."

AUD/USD levels 

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that, technically,  "in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA extended its advance below the current level, maintaining its bullish slope, while technical indicators ease within positive territory, not enough, however, to confirm a downward move ahead. A corrective movement could take place on a break below 0.8080, the immediate support, although renewed buying interest leading to an advance beyond 0.8130, will probably end in the pair nearing the 0.8200 figure."