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AUD/JPY remains bid despite dismal Aussie data dump

  • AUD/JPY remains bid on risk reset. 
  • Retail sales rebound in Jan was weaker-than-expected. 
  • Australia current account deficit widened more than expected in Q4. 

AUD/JPY pair fell 27 pips from the session high of 82.81 after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a weaker-than-expected rebound in the retail sales and a wider Q4 current account deficit. 

Aussie retail sales in January rose 0.1 percent month-on-month vs. 0.5 percent drop registered in December but missed the estimate of a 0.4 percent rise by a big margin. Further, the current account deficit widened to AUD 14 billion in the fourth quarter, beating the estimated rise to $12.6 billion from the previous quarter's print of $9.1 billion. 

So, the AUD ran into offers and fell to 82.55 immediately after the data release.  However, the overnight rally in the US stocks seems to have triggered the unwinding of the Yen longs, thus, the cross is on the rise again and could print fresh session high of 82.81.

The focus now shifts to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision due later today. No one expects the central bank to move rates today. That said, the bank's language on inflation, wage growth, and financial stability risks could move the Aussie dollar. 

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

As of writing, the pair is trading at 82.76. A break above 82.81 (session high) would open up upside towards 83.00 (psychological level) and 83.16 (10-day moving average). On the downside, breach of support at 82.48 (5-day moving average) could yield a re-test of 82.00 (psychological support) and 81.49 (previous day's low). 

 

 

 

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