US: Focus on Philly Fed survey and jobless claims – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the Philly Fed survey headline index to fall slightly to 21.5 in April, from 22.3 in March, consistent with Nomura’s outlook for the Empire State manufacturing survey.

Key Quotes

“Although the Philly Fed survey headline index fell below expectations in March, details of the survey pointed to continued firm growth. New orders and unfilled orders indices jumped solidly, consistent with elevated demand. We expect manufacturers to remain optimistic in April, but it is possible the April Philly Fed survey will reflect concerns over potential disruptions caused by escalating US-Sino trade tensions. Concerns over rising input prices and the supply chain impact from trade tensions could affect April business sentiment.”

“Initial jobless claims: Initial and continuing unemployment claims have remained close to historical lows. The upcoming initial jobless claims release will coincide with the BLS survey week for the April employment report. As the labor market continues to strengthen on solid Q1 2018 payroll employment growth (despite a weather induced transitory slowdown), initial and continuing jobless claims should stay low.”