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21 Apr 2014
US dollar unpopular amongst leveraged traders - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - Khoon Goh, Senior FX Strategist at ANZ, shared a summary of the CFTC positioning data for the week ending 15 April 2014, noting that the US dollar remains unpopular amongst leveraged funds.
Key Quotes
"The US dollar remains unpopular amongst leveraged funds. Based on a bottom-up tally of CFTC positioning, leveraged funds increased their net short USD exposure by USD4.6bn in the week to USD15.6bn. This is the largest net short position since mid-October 2013. However, direct positioning in the ICE DXY Index showed that while speculators maintain an overall short position, this has been reduced for the second consecutive week by 5.6k, though from very extreme levels."
" Short positions getting stopped out are likely behind the reduction in net short JPY positions by 17.7k contracts (worth USD2.2bn). This is the largest reduction since late January and helps to explain the rally in JPY during that period. However, with the move lower in USD/JPY stalling at the 101.3 level and rebounding since the CFTC cut-off date, this suggests the short squeeze is over for now and fresh short JPY positions may have been rebuilt."
"GBP remains a favourite amongst leveraged funds. Despite net long positions at a record high, this has not dissuaded speculators from adding another 5.4k contracts (worth USD0.6bn) to take overall positioning to 122.9k (worth USD12.8bn). Given the strong UK employment report after the CFTC cut-off date and judging from the price action, we suspect leveraged funds continued to accumulate GBP."
"Leveraged funds have now turned bullish on AUD, which is quite a flip after having record net short positions in the currency in late January. Net long positions increased by 5.3k contracts (USD0.5bn) to 19k (USD1.8bn), the highest since early May 2013. The rally in AUD/USD has not matched the change in positioning over recent weeks, which may risk some unwinding of long positions in the near term."
"A combination of position squaring by longs and increased shorting activity saw net long non-commercial gold positions fall by 7.3k contracts to 113.6k. Non-commercial long positions fell by 2.6k contracts, while shorts increased exposure by 4.7k. Net long positions in crude oil rose by 13.8k contracts to 440.9k, close to recent record highs."
Key Quotes
"The US dollar remains unpopular amongst leveraged funds. Based on a bottom-up tally of CFTC positioning, leveraged funds increased their net short USD exposure by USD4.6bn in the week to USD15.6bn. This is the largest net short position since mid-October 2013. However, direct positioning in the ICE DXY Index showed that while speculators maintain an overall short position, this has been reduced for the second consecutive week by 5.6k, though from very extreme levels."
" Short positions getting stopped out are likely behind the reduction in net short JPY positions by 17.7k contracts (worth USD2.2bn). This is the largest reduction since late January and helps to explain the rally in JPY during that period. However, with the move lower in USD/JPY stalling at the 101.3 level and rebounding since the CFTC cut-off date, this suggests the short squeeze is over for now and fresh short JPY positions may have been rebuilt."
"GBP remains a favourite amongst leveraged funds. Despite net long positions at a record high, this has not dissuaded speculators from adding another 5.4k contracts (worth USD0.6bn) to take overall positioning to 122.9k (worth USD12.8bn). Given the strong UK employment report after the CFTC cut-off date and judging from the price action, we suspect leveraged funds continued to accumulate GBP."
"Leveraged funds have now turned bullish on AUD, which is quite a flip after having record net short positions in the currency in late January. Net long positions increased by 5.3k contracts (USD0.5bn) to 19k (USD1.8bn), the highest since early May 2013. The rally in AUD/USD has not matched the change in positioning over recent weeks, which may risk some unwinding of long positions in the near term."
"A combination of position squaring by longs and increased shorting activity saw net long non-commercial gold positions fall by 7.3k contracts to 113.6k. Non-commercial long positions fell by 2.6k contracts, while shorts increased exposure by 4.7k. Net long positions in crude oil rose by 13.8k contracts to 440.9k, close to recent record highs."