UK: Selmayr meeting suggests attempts at a backstop compromise – ABN AMRO

Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that after the European Commission Secretary General Martin Selmayr’s meeting with the UK parliament’s Brexit select committee, it has emerged that Mr Selmayr asked Brexit-supporting MPs whether inserting a letter (dated 14 January) with assurances over the backstop into PM May’s Withdrawal Agreement would be enough to garner their support.

Key Quotes

“While those MPs did not give a clear response to the suggestion, it does suggest the EU is scoping support for potential changes, and that Brexit-supporting MPs – by not rejecting the idea outright – are looking for a reason to now support the deal, perhaps out of fear that rejecting the deal again could lead to Brexit not happening at all (if, for instance, to prevent No-deal parliament votes to extend or revoke Article 50, perhaps to hold a referendum).”

“Such ‘assurances’ for instance included ‘providing the necessary political impetus and resources to help achieving the objective of making this period [the backstop] as short as possible’, and to cut short the time the backstop is in place, ‘should national ratifications be pending … the commission is ready to propose provisional application of relevant parts of the future relationship.’ This letter as it stands has no legal weight.”

“Should it be inserted into the Withdrawal Agreement, the UK could potentially use it as legal evidence in any potential dispute over the backstop arrangement. Whether this would be enough to sway Brexiteers remains to be seen, given that many are demanding either a time limit or the right to unilaterally withdraw from it. Much would depend on the legal advice of the Attorney General. However, it is a sign that there are moves to a potential compromise on the issue.”