Canada: Economic data will also likely get significantly worse in April – RBC

Canadian manufacturing sales dropped 9.2% in March, more than the slide of 5.7% expected. Nathan Janzen, Senior Economist at RBC Capital Markets points out economic data will get worse in April. He adds regarding the report that sizeable declines were widespread across industries as plants shut down over the back half of March with the only exceptions were increases in food, beverage and tobacco, and paper manufacturers. 

Key Quotes:

“Details of the report suggest that actual manufacturing production fell by less than the 8.3% drop in sale volumes (excluding price changes) alone would imply. Inventories, for example, ticked higher. But the drop in output volume still probably rivaled the largest monthly decline in the 2008/09 financial crisis (a 4.4% drop in December 2008.) And, unlike that earlier downturn, weakness in the services-side of the economy was likely significantly more pronounced.”

“Statistics Canada has already estimated that overall GDP fell by a record 9% in March, and this data is consistent with that. The economic data will also likely get significantly worse in April - and with more spillover to the goods side of the economy with containment measures in place for the entire month.”

“We could see some improvement in May already with social/distancing measures easing in spots, but the drop in activity in March and April is still likely to be staggering, and entirely unprecedented in modern measured economic data.”