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1 Aug 2014
China PMIs, US NFP eyed - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, review the day ahead, outlining the Chinese PMIs and the US Non-Farm Payrolls as the key events for Friday.
Key Quotes
"China’s official manufacturing PMI for July dominates the regional calendar (11am Syd/9am local). The median forecast is for only incremental further gain in the headline index, to 51.4 from 51.0 in June. This would be a high since Nov 2013 but is hardly a booming reading. This is the key release today but we will also see the final HSBC-sponsored version 45 minutes later expected to remain at 52.0. The Markit PMIs in other Asian nations are also due today, as are the UK and final European surveys."
"The cautiousness of FX trade in Thursday trade was probably due to the proximity of the US July employment report. The headline NFP number has beaten consensus for five straight months. Naturally this has seen consensus push higher, to 230k. Excluding the distortions of temporary census hiring, this is the most bullish forecast since Jan 2006. Westpac is on 200k. The separately surveyed unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 6.1%."
Key Quotes
"China’s official manufacturing PMI for July dominates the regional calendar (11am Syd/9am local). The median forecast is for only incremental further gain in the headline index, to 51.4 from 51.0 in June. This would be a high since Nov 2013 but is hardly a booming reading. This is the key release today but we will also see the final HSBC-sponsored version 45 minutes later expected to remain at 52.0. The Markit PMIs in other Asian nations are also due today, as are the UK and final European surveys."
"The cautiousness of FX trade in Thursday trade was probably due to the proximity of the US July employment report. The headline NFP number has beaten consensus for five straight months. Naturally this has seen consensus push higher, to 230k. Excluding the distortions of temporary census hiring, this is the most bullish forecast since Jan 2006. Westpac is on 200k. The separately surveyed unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 6.1%."